Five key events of macroeconomic calendar
Star of the week definitely will be the March report on level of employment outside the agricultural sector in the United States, however, there are other important publications to which you should pay attention.
1 labor Day
The Ministry of Labour will publish its latest report on the state of the labor market, from which it will become clear how many workplaces the US economy created in March. Analysts predict that the figure will be released at the level of 247 thousand. – Showing strong growth, albeit below last year trend. Rate of b / p, is projected to remain at 5.5%, still above the Federal Reserve set on 5-5.2% as a long-term target range. As usual, we will focus on the growth rate of salary. Investors interested in signs of increasing inflationary pressures. Since February last year, salary grew by only 2%. Any signs of tightening labor market conditions may push the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate. Forecast at the rate of b / p in March – 5.5%.
Acceptable inflation criterion of Federal Reserve has not been reaching the target value of the Central Bank (established by 2%) for 33 months in a row. February will be the thirty-fourth. Decline the oil prices, strong dollar and weak country’s economies – trading partners restrain inflation in America. Price index of consumer spending in January grew only by 0.2%. The base value of the index, which is not taking into account the prices of food and energy, rose slightly, but for target values is still far.
3 Power consumers
In December and January, consumer spending declined, signaling of vigilance of the americans, despite the growth in employment and an increase in revenue due to reduction in fuel prices. Analysts believe that personal spending in February rose by 0.2% due to revenue growth of 0.3%. To predictions come true, consumers would need to spend more on services, because the previously published report on retail sales for the reporting month is not encouraging. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so that data can seriously affect the GDP forecast for the first quarter. Forecast on personal spending – 0.2%.
4 Trade balance in the US
On Thursday, the US Department of Commerce publishes data on the trade balance deficit. It is expected that in February it will 40.8 billion. dollars, which is below than January values. It’s a bit stale data, but they will shed light on the dynamics in the first quarter. High deficit will force economists to cut their forecasts for economic growth in the first three months of the year, even though they do not differ so much optimism and do not exceed an average of 1%. The forecast on the trade deficit – 40.8 billion USD.
Institute of Purchasing Managers on Wednesday will publish the March report on business activity. In recent months, the manufacturing sector has to contend with various difficulties and overcome the obstacles, in particular – a strong dollar, which makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive and slowing economic growth in other countries. ISM index in October has fallen by 5 points to 52.9 (the value recorded in February). Economists expect another decline to 52.6. The official report on factory orders for February will be published on Thursday.
based on The Wall Street Journal